Additions: John Jenkins, Javale McGee, Samuel Dalembert, Jeremy Evans, Wesley Matthews, Deron Williams
Am I the only guy that doesn’t think Wesley Matthews is worth 4-years/$70 million? I know the Kings do, but I’m hesitant. Although he’s only 29, a great “3-and-D guy,” and has an excellent track record in Utah and Portland, he’s still just seven months removed from a brutal ACL tear. I will admit he’s only got better throughout his career and he’s still young—and I’m hoping I’m wrong on this, but I don’t think I am… Matthews has been extremely consistent over the last five seasons averaging about 15 points and 2.2 assists per season. Career-wise, he’s averaged an impressive 39% from three and 82.5% from the free throw line, but an ACL tear has commonly been a debilitating injury. Perhaps guaranteeing Matthews $70 million over the next four years is a bit too aggressive for the Mavs long-term future…
Subtractions: Al Farouq-Aminu, Tyson Chandler, Monta Ellis, Bernard James, Richard Jefferson, Rajon Rondo, Greg Smith, Amare Stoudamire
I’d like to use this paragraph to rail against Rajon Rondo and label what he did to last year’s Mavs high-speed offense an injustice, but I will instead focus on the departure of a player who actually made the Mavs better… Monta Ellis left Dallas for Indiana this summer and took his team high 18.9 PPG with him. Although Ellis has a reputation as a bit of a chucker, he shot a very respectable 44.5% from the field last season. Nonetheless, Monta carried the load offensively taking just shy of 17 shots per contest while his 27.9 usage rate was 12th in the league. I expect Matthews to take a lot of those shots after his return, but in the meanwhile, Chandler Parsons and Dirk Nowitzki will have to step their games up on the offensive end. While I expect Ellis will make a great impact with Indiana, I expect him to once again fall short of an All-Star nod. Throughout his 11-year career, Monta has never been named an All-Star. Say what you will about his game, but it’s almost astonishing that he hasn’t been an All-Star; dude scored 25.5 PPG in 2009/10 (sixth in the NBA)!!
Rookies: Justin Anderson
Justin Anderson is a very intriguing selection for the Mavericks. At 6’6”, 225 lbs., he’s already got NBA size and strength. He’ll most likely be able to play both the two and three in the NBA. Anderson also has great athleticism. Defensively, he has a lot of potential. He moves laterally quickly, can guard bigger players, and is a good shotblocker. Anderson greatly improved his outside shooting last season. He raised this three point shooting from 29% as a sophomore to 45% as a junior. Although he doesn’t create his own shot effectively, he plays within the flow of the offense and his passing ability helps him find open teammates. Anderson will spend most of his time at three backing up Chandler Parsons, but with Matthews out for up to two months potentially, the Mavs may opt to play him at the two rather than have Harris guard much bigger shooting guards.
Guards: Remember five years back, arguing about who was the NBA’s best point guard—Chris Paul or Deron Williams? Well, it looks like it was Chris Paul… While CP3 attempts to make the next big leap to champion in his Hall of Fame career, D-Will looks to get his career back in order in Dallas. No longer even a top 25 point guard, Williams’ skills practically eroded over this last two seasons in Brooklyn. In 2014/15, he averaged 13 PPG and 6.6 APG off a paltry 38.7% from the field and looked nothing like the player he was in Utah. Over the last three seasons, D-Will has transformed from strong and quick to overweight and slow… He also has really bad ankles—both of them. Honestly, Williams shouldn’t be starting anywhere. At just 30 years old, he looks like a shell of his former self and I strongly doubt the old D-Will will resurrect himself in Dallas. J.J. Barrea will back up Williams and when you look at their numbers, they’re very similar. Per 36 minutes, Barrea scored 15.3 points and tallied 7 assists in comparison to Williams’ 15.1 points and 7.6 assists. In fact, Barrea’s PER of 15.1 is only .6 less than D-Will’s 15.7. Williams is clearly the bigger guard at 6’3” and 210 lbs., but he’s no longer quicker. Should Williams get hurt or simply just play poorly, Barrea could see starters’ minutes. Raymond Felton will fill the role of third-string point guard and will most likely be ineffective. Remember when an anonymous NBA executive called Felton “the worst starting point guard in the NBA” and stated he’d “take 10 college point guards and about 30 NBA backups” over him? And that was two years ago, do you think he got any better? With Matthews out until approximately Christmas, Devin Harris will get the start at two-guard for the Mavs. He’s certainly not the player who scored 21.3 PPG and went to the All-Star game in 2008/09, but he can score in spurts and D up smaller guards. With Ellis gone, he may need to be more assertive on offense, but he’s basically a spot holder until Matthews’ return. John Jenkins will back up Harris (and eventually Matthews).
Forwards: Chandler Parsons is good, but if he’s your team’s best player, I’m hesitant to believe your team can compete for an NBA championship. Don’t get me wrong: I love his offensive game. Parsons is an above-average passer and has the ability to knock down the three ball. Parsons’ biggest liability is his defense. He’s not much of a shotblocker and routinely gets backed down by bigger forwards in the post. Justin Anderson will back up Parsons. At the four, Dallas starts the greatest Maverick of all-time, Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk’s old now—there’s no way to get around that. For the first time since his rookie season, Dirk played less than 30 minutes per game last season. Remarkably, he’s missed just five games over the last two years, but at his age (and with his history), injuries are always a concern. Undoubtedly, Dirk is a bit slower and it’s almost impossible for him to guard bigger fours, but his offensive skills have remained. Last season, Dirk shot 45.9% from the field, 38% from three, 88.2% from the line, and had a true-shooting percentage 56%. He’s still the man in Dallas and I still expect the offense to run through him while he’s on the court. Dirk still scored 17.3 PPG and took 13.5 FGA. As he’s done for over 15 years, Dirk can shoot over smaller defenders or he can back them down into the paint. Even at 37, the man can still get out and get his shot. If healthy, Dirk should have a solid 2015/16 season. Veteran Charlie Villanueva will back up Nowitzki at the four-spot. Most people consider Charlie V a complete bum because he failed to live up to his contract in Detroit, but A) Detroit was a complete mess and B) He’s not the only Piston who failed to meet expectations (Ben Gordon?). Charlie V has started just one game since the beginning of the 2011/12 season, so it’s safe to say that he’s embraced his role as a bench player. Villanueva knows his game. Offensively, he can use his outside shooting ability to space the floor or his size to score inside. He posted an impressive PER of 17.4 last season, the second-highest number of his career. If you thought Villanueva’s PER was high, how about Jeremy Evans’ 2014/15 mark of 20.5!! Seems pretty high for a guy that averaged 2.4 PPG and 0.3 APG—both he and Charlie V are reasons why advanced stats nerds shouldn’t get too enamored with PER. Nonetheless, signing Evans to a 2-year minimum contract is a low-risk/medium reward transaction.
Centers: Well, what the fuck happened here? The plan was ambitious… Let Tyson Chandler go and sign DeAndre Jordan to a long-term deal. Now I’m reluctant to recap how and what went down (allegedly a group of Clippers players including Doc were able to corner DJ in a room while Mark Cuban drove around Houston calling and texting DeAndre’s fans and family—again, a strong allegedly), but eventually Jordan decided to re-sign with the Clippers. So what do you do when you can’t land a top five NBA center? Sign a bottom five NBA center? Enter Samuel Dalembert. Not only is this Sammy’s second stint with the Mavs, but this is also his sixth team in six years. Sam will turn 35 this season and his numbers fairly reflect this downward spiral. Last season’s 4 PPG and 5.3 RPG in limited time with the Knicks were the lowest marks of Dalembert’s career. He was eventually waived from the Knicks and remained unsigned for the majority of last season. In all fairness, Dalembert won’t be the starter–that job goes to Zaza Pachulia, a center actually who actually deserves an NBA contract. Pachulia isn’t going to stuff the stat sheet, but he’s effective on the offensive end and can be aggressive on the boards. Last season, he averaged 8.3 PPG and 6.8 RPG while posting a 15.6 PER, his highest mark since 2006/07. While Pachulia isn’t the sexiest free agent signing, he’s a solid player and the Mavs were perhaps lucky to land him after the Jordan debacle. The Mavs also rolled the dice and signed Javale McGee to a one-year, minimum contract. This is a very low-risk signing considering McGee’s exceptional length, size, and talent. But he is a knucklehead that’s become more synonymous with basketball bloopers than hardwood achievements…
Final thoughts: I don’t think the Trailblazers are the only Western Conference team that may fall out of the playoff picture—count the Mavs in, too! Admittedly, ditching Rondo will only make the Mavs a better, more efficient team, but the loses of Tyson Chandler and Monta Ellis might be too much to bear. Ellis was the team’s best scorer and Chandler was by far the team’s best rebounder. Do you think the tandem of Javale McGee and Samuel Dalembert will make up 11.5 rebounds per game? I don’t think they can combine to contribute 11 minutes in a game—certainly not in a win… This is Dirk’s team (as it should be) and will be his team until he retires. However, it might be time for Chandler Parsons to become the best player on the squad. He was solid last season, but his numbers were generally lower across the board last season in comparison with his last season with Houston. With the Mavs relaying heavily on him to play extended minutes to start the season, it’s a trend that cannot continue… I love Rick Carlisle. He’s a top 5 coach in the league and despite the fact that this team won’t make the postseason, he’ll get the most out of this roster… What about declining point guard skills is so attractive to the Mavs’ brass? Granted, a 2-year/$10 million deal for Deron Williams may sound like a good idea, but it isn’t… He’s cooked. Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, AND Raymond Felton?!?! Triple yikes! It’s the deepest position in the league, and the Mavs rolled the dice on three guys who shouldn’t be in the league. Bring back Shane Larkin?? It’s interesting to think about what this team’s ceiling would’ve been with DeAndre Jordan. With him, they could’ve made the playoffs but I still don’t think they’d be in the top four seeds…
4 Quarters Radio Show 