2015/16 Team Preview: Dallas Mavericks

Additions: John Jenkins, Javale McGee, Samuel Dalembert, Jeremy Evans, Wesley Matthews, Deron Williams

Am I the only guy that doesn’t think Wesley Matthews is worth 4-years/$70 million? I know the Kings do, but I’m hesitant. Although he’s only 29, a great “3-and-D guy,” and has an excellent track record in Utah and Portland, he’s still just seven months removed from a brutal ACL tear. I will admit he’s only got better throughout his career and he’s still young—and I’m hoping I’m wrong on this, but I don’t think I am… Matthews has been extremely consistent over the last five seasons averaging about 15 points and 2.2 assists per season. Career-wise, he’s averaged an impressive 39% from three and 82.5% from the free throw line, but an ACL tear has commonly been a debilitating injury. Perhaps guaranteeing Matthews $70 million over the next four years is a bit too aggressive for the Mavs long-term future…

Subtractions: Al Farouq-Aminu, Tyson Chandler, Monta Ellis, Bernard James, Richard Jefferson, Rajon Rondo, Greg Smith, Amare Stoudamire

I’d like to use this paragraph to rail against Rajon Rondo and label what he did to last year’s Mavs high-speed offense an injustice, but I will instead focus on the departure of a player who actually made the Mavs better… Monta Ellis left Dallas for Indiana this summer and took his team high 18.9 PPG with him. Although Ellis has a reputation as a bit of a chucker, he shot a very respectable 44.5% from the field last season. Nonetheless, Monta carried the load offensively taking just shy of 17 shots per contest while his 27.9 usage rate was 12^th in the league. I expect Matthews to take a lot of those shots after his return, but in the meanwhile, Chandler Parsons and Dirk Nowitzki will have to step their games up on the offensive end. While I expect Ellis will make a great impact with Indiana, I expect him to once again fall short of an All-Star nod. Throughout his 11-year career, Monta has never been named an All-Star. Say what you will about his game, but it’s almost astonishing that he hasn’t been an All-Star; dude scored 25.5 PPG in 2009/10 (sixth in the NBA)!!

Rookies: Justin Anderson

Justin Anderson is a very intriguing selection for the Mavericks. At 6’6”, 225 lbs., he’s already got NBA size and strength. He’ll most likely be able to play both the two and three in the NBA. Anderson also has great athleticism. Defensively, he has a lot of potential. He moves laterally quickly, can guard bigger players, and is a good shotblocker. Anderson greatly improved his outside shooting last season. He raised this three point shooting from 29% as a sophomore to 45% as a junior. Although he doesn’t create his own shot effectively, he plays within the flow of the offense and his passing ability helps him find open teammates. Anderson will spend most of his time at three backing up Chandler Parsons, but with Matthews out for up to two months potentially, the Mavs may opt to play him at the two rather than have Harris guard much bigger shooting guards.

Guards: Remember five years back, arguing about who was the NBA’s best point guard—Chris Paul or Deron Williams? Well, it looks like it was Chris Paul… While CP3 attempts to make the next big leap to champion in his Hall of Fame career, D-Will looks to get his career back in order in Dallas. No longer even a top 25 point guard, Williams’ skills practically eroded over this last two seasons in Brooklyn. In 2014/15, he averaged 13 PPG and 6.6 APG off a paltry 38.7% from the field and looked nothing like the player he was in Utah. Over the last three seasons, D-Will has transformed from strong and quick to overweight and slow… He also has really bad ankles—both of them. Honestly, Williams shouldn’t be starting anywhere. At just 30 years old, he looks like a shell of his former self and I strongly doubt the old D-Will will resurrect himself in Dallas. J.J. Barrea will back up Williams and when you look at their numbers, they’re very similar. Per 36 minutes, Barrea scored 15.3 points and tallied 7 assists in comparison to Williams’ 15.1 points and 7.6 assists. In fact, Barrea’s PER of 15.1 is only .6 less than D-Will’s 15.7. Williams is clearly the bigger guard at 6’3” and 210 lbs., but he’s no longer quicker. Should Williams get hurt or simply just play poorly, Barrea could see starters’ minutes. Raymond Felton will fill the role of third-string point guard and will most likely be ineffective. Remember when an anonymous NBA executive called Felton “the worst starting point guard in the NBA” and stated he’d “take 10 college point guards and about 30 NBA backups” over him? And that was two years ago, do you think he got any better? With Matthews out until approximately Christmas, Devin Harris will get the start at two-guard for the Mavs. He’s certainly not the player who scored 21.3 PPG and went to the All-Star game in 2008/09, but he can score in spurts and D up smaller guards. With Ellis gone, he may need to be more assertive on offense, but he’s basically a spot holder until Matthews’ return. John Jenkins will back up Harris (and eventually Matthews).

Forwards: Chandler Parsons is good, but if he’s your team’s best player, I’m hesitant to believe your team can compete for an NBA championship. Don’t get me wrong: I love his offensive game. Parsons is an above-average passer and has the ability to knock down the three ball. Parsons’ biggest liability is his defense. He’s not much of a shotblocker and routinely gets backed down by bigger forwards in the post. Justin Anderson will back up Parsons. At the four, Dallas starts the greatest Maverick of all-time, Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk’s old now—there’s no way to get around that. For the first time since his rookie season, Dirk played less than 30 minutes per game last season. Remarkably, he’s missed just five games over the last two years, but at his age (and with his history), injuries are always a concern. Undoubtedly, Dirk is a bit slower and it’s almost impossible for him to guard bigger fours, but his offensive skills have remained. Last season, Dirk shot 45.9% from the field, 38% from three, 88.2% from the line, and had a true-shooting percentage 56%. He’s still the man in Dallas and I still expect the offense to run through him while he’s on the court. Dirk still scored 17.3 PPG and took 13.5 FGA. As he’s done for over 15 years, Dirk can shoot over smaller defenders or he can back them down into the paint. Even at 37, the man can still get out and get his shot. If healthy, Dirk should have a solid 2015/16 season. Veteran Charlie Villanueva will back up Nowitzki at the four-spot. Most people consider Charlie V a complete bum because he failed to live up to his contract in Detroit, but A) Detroit was a complete mess and B) He’s not the only Piston who failed to meet expectations (Ben Gordon?). Charlie V has started just one game since the beginning of the 2011/12 season, so it’s safe to say that he’s embraced his role as a bench player. Villanueva knows his game. Offensively, he can use his outside shooting ability to space the floor or his size to score inside. He posted an impressive PER of 17.4 last season, the second-highest number of his career. If you thought Villanueva’s PER was high, how about Jeremy Evans’ 2014/15 mark of 20.5!! Seems pretty high for a guy that averaged 2.4 PPG and 0.3 APG—both he and Charlie V are reasons why advanced stats nerds shouldn’t get too enamored with PER. Nonetheless, signing Evans to a 2-year minimum contract is a low-risk/medium reward transaction.

Centers: Well, what the fuck happened here? The plan was ambitious… Let Tyson Chandler go and sign DeAndre Jordan to a long-term deal. Now I’m reluctant to recap how and what went down (allegedly a group of Clippers players including Doc were able to corner DJ in a room while Mark Cuban drove around Houston calling and texting DeAndre’s fans and family—again, a strong allegedly), but eventually Jordan decided to re-sign with the Clippers. So what do you do when you can’t land a top five NBA center? Sign a bottom five NBA center? Enter Samuel Dalembert. Not only is this Sammy’s second stint with the Mavs, but this is also his sixth team in six years. Sam will turn 35 this season and his numbers fairly reflect this downward spiral. Last season’s 4 PPG and 5.3 RPG in limited time with the Knicks were the lowest marks of Dalembert’s career. He was eventually waived from the Knicks and remained unsigned for the majority of last season. In all fairness, Dalembert won’t be the starter–that job goes to Zaza Pachulia, a center actually who actually deserves an NBA contract. Pachulia isn’t going to stuff the stat sheet, but he’s effective on the offensive end and can be aggressive on the boards. Last season, he averaged 8.3 PPG and 6.8 RPG while posting a 15.6 PER, his highest mark since 2006/07. While Pachulia isn’t the sexiest free agent signing, he’s a solid player and the Mavs were perhaps lucky to land him after the Jordan debacle. The Mavs also rolled the dice and signed Javale McGee to a one-year, minimum contract. This is a very low-risk signing considering McGee’s exceptional length, size, and talent. But he is a knucklehead that’s become more synonymous with basketball bloopers than hardwood achievements…

Final thoughts: I don’t think the Trailblazers are the only Western Conference team that may fall out of the playoff picture—count the Mavs in, too! Admittedly, ditching Rondo will only make the Mavs a better, more efficient team, but the loses of Tyson Chandler and Monta Ellis might be too much to bear. Ellis was the team’s best scorer and Chandler was by far the team’s best rebounder. Do you think the tandem of Javale McGee and Samuel Dalembert will make up 11.5 rebounds per game? I don’t think they can combine to contribute 11 minutes in a game—certainly not in a win… This is Dirk’s team (as it should be) and will be his team until he retires. However, it might be time for Chandler Parsons to become the best player on the squad. He was solid last season, but his numbers were generally lower across the board last season in comparison with his last season with Houston. With the Mavs relaying heavily on him to play extended minutes to start the season, it’s a trend that cannot continue… I love Rick Carlisle. He’s a top 5 coach in the league and despite the fact that this team won’t make the postseason, he’ll get the most out of this roster… What about declining point guard skills is so attractive to the Mavs’ brass? Granted, a 2-year/$10 million deal for Deron Williams may sound like a good idea, but it isn’t… He’s cooked. Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, AND Raymond Felton?!?! Triple yikes! It’s the deepest position in the league, and the Mavs rolled the dice on three guys who shouldn’t be in the league. Bring back Shane Larkin?? It’s interesting to think about what this team’s ceiling would’ve been with DeAndre Jordan. With him, they could’ve made the playoffs but I still don’t think they’d be in the top four seeds…

2015/16 Team Preview: Brooklyn Nets

Additions: Andrea Bargnani, Wayne Ellington, Dahntay Jones, Shane Larkin, Thomas Robinson, Donald Sloan, Quincy Miller

In my opinion, the most interesting addition to the Brooklyn roster is undoubtedly Andrea Bargnani. He is commonly referred to as bust mainly because he was the #1 overall draft pick in the 2006 NBA draft; but make no mistake, Bargnani isn’t Michael Olawakandi or Anthony Bennett. Over his 9-year career, he’s averaged 15 PPG, even averaging 17.2 and 21.4 PPG in 2009/10 and 2010/11 respectively. Bargnani even helped the Raptors get to the playoffs in his first two seasons, but once Chris Bosh bolted for Miami, his Raptors never saw the postseason again. Once Andrea landed with the Knicks, not only did he stop playing well, he stopped playing in general, appearing in just 71 games in his two years with the team. Over this summer, he ended up signing a 2-year deal for the veteran’s minimum with the Nets. But does he have anything left in the tank? Well let’s look at some of the positives. For the first time in his NBA career, very little is expected of Bargnani. He was a #1 draft pick in Toronto and he was making over $22 million while he was in New York. No one expects him to be the man; in fact, no one expects him to start. Bargnani will be backing up Brooklyn’s franchise player Brook Lopez. But it’s still not all good. Brooklyn brought in Andrea to help space the floor when Lopez is on the bench; however, Bargnani’s no longer the “poor man’s Dirk.” Over his least two seasons, he’s taking dramatically less three point tries, attempting just 1.4 threes per game last year. For a seven-footer, he’s also a less-than-stellar rebounder (4.8 RPG career average) and almost a non-existent shot blocker. If Bargnani is going to reinvent his game successfully, he may have to enter the paint this season.

Losses: Alan Anderson, Earl Clark, Jerome Jordan, Darius Morris, Mason Plumlee, Mirza Teletovic, Deron Williams

Ever since the Nets reigned in the Brooklyn era, they’ve been searching for an identity. They’ve had four coaches and numerous superstars come and go. When the then New Jersey Nets traded for Deron Williams in 2010, he appeared to be the cornerstone of the franchise. It looks like the cornerstone is going to have to be Brooke Lopez moving forward because Deron Williams’ lack of leadership, humongous contract, and generally shitty play became such an albatross that the Nets agreed to a $25 million buyout just to rid themselves of Williams. As for what D-Will still has in the tank, we’ll have to address that in the Mavericks preview, but looking back on his tenure with the Nets, it’s hard to view it as anything other than a colossal failure. The basketball world was shocked when the Jazz traded Williams, then an elite player often cited along with Chris Paul as one of the best PGs in the league, to New Jersey after he and Jerry Sloan failed to see eye-to-eye. Soon after, it was apparent why the Jazz traded him—he’s an uncoachable player with bad ankles and weight issues. Furthermore, future Hall of Famer Paul Pierce has since noted that upon arriving in Brooklyn, he assumed Williams would be an MVP candidate but soon conceded that Williams “just didn’t want it.”

When the Nets traded Mason Plumlee to Portland last June, the team more or less committed to re-signing Brook Lopez when his contract expires in the summer of 2016. It’s not like they gave Plumlee away, they received a veteran point guard and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson in return. But given Plumlee’s occasional flashes of brilliance, his departure was somewhat surprising. Let’s be honest: Brooke Lopez doesn’t play every minute in an NBA game, nor does he play in every game in any NBA season. Are the Nets ready to move forward with Andrea Bargnani as the sole insurance policy to Lopez? It appears they are. In a season that will most likely be the Nets’ worst since moving to Brooklyn, the team will certainly be extremely light on the boards. Beyond Lopez, the team will rely upon rookie Chris McCullough, the often-waived Thomas Robinson, and undersized tweener Thaddeus Young to clean the glass! Yikes! Plumlee also established himself as one of the more athletic bigs in the league and a solid finisher around the rim. Despite Plumlee landing on the wrong side of Lionel Hollins’ rotation throughout the second half of the year, I believe the Nets are cutting ties with Mason too early. He’s making $1.4 million this year and has a $2.3 million team option in 2016/17. I love Hollis-Jefferson but he’s not prepared to make the impact Plumlee will next season. Unfortunately for him, however, he got shipped to a team that might actually be worse than Brooklyn. Good luck, Mason!

Rookies: Ryan Boatright, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Chris McCullough, Willie Reed

At 20 years old, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson already has NBA size—he’s 6’7”, 212 pounds with a 7’2” wingspan. It’s quite possible that he adds even more size to his frame throughout his NBA career. Not only is he athletic and strong, he’s also quick and explosive. Hollis-Jefferson also has an excellent motor and a nose for the ball. He has the potential to be a superb role player and teammate as he can be quite effective without the ball. He’s also a superior defender with ability to guard a variety of positions (most likely 2-4 in the NBA). Unfortunately, he’s not much of a shooter and his form is not very consistent. Due to his shaky jumper and subpar handle, he’s quite limited offensively, but he’s always around the rim and has the potential to become an excellent garbage man. Nonetheless, with his size, energy, and defensive prowess, I believe Hollis-Jefferson is primed to have a lengthy career in the NBA.

Guards: Following Williams’ departure, the Nets backcourt is a little on the thin side. Despite playing on every team in the league, Jarrett Jack is a very solid player. His game isn’t overly exciting, but over his ten-year career, Jack has averaged 11 PPG and 4.4 APG, both marks he achieved last season in Brooklyn. While not a particularly great shooter, Jack’s greatest attribute may be his ability to lead, which on a team that will most likely hit several skids is quite important. Beyond Jack, the Nets will rely on Shane Larkin (on his third team in three years) and journeyman Donald Sloan. In short, Larkin hasn’t been a very good NBA player up to this point. He didn’t really play in Dallas, but with New York last season, Larkin appeared in 76 games (starting 22), where he averaged 6.2 PPG off 43.3% shooting from the field in 24.5 minutes per game. Although he ranked 14^th in assist-to-turnover ratio last season, (2.72), more tellingly, he ranked 59^th in assists per 48 minutes (5.8). Larkin also posted a PER of just 10.9 last season. If Larkin is going to help the Nets, he’s going to need better. Donald Sloan had a solid season last year and will most likely sit behind Larkin in the rotation despite posting superior numbers last season (7.4 PPG, 3.6 APG, and 13.1 PER). Bojan Bogdanovic returns at the two spot after having a solid season last season. Foremost, Bojan is an excellent shooter and will be relied upon to fill that role. Wayne Ellington, a serviceable guard who’s shown flashes of brilliance but has never done enough to stick with any one team longer than a season after his time in Minnesota, will back him up. On a team with little more than three good players, Brooklyn’s backcourt exemplifies why the Nets won’t be very good.

Forwards: Joe Johnson’s 14.4 PPG last season was his lowest mark since 2002/03 and his 35.9 3PT% is his second-lowest mark since 2005/06… And he makes $25 million this season, second only to Kobe Bryant. Wow! Think he’ll take a pay cut in 2016/17? The Nets are saps and acquiring Joe Johnson proved it. For now, they just need to give him the ball, lose games, and wait for the season to end. Best-case scenario: maybe they can move him somewhere before the deadline. Worst-case scenario: I think the Nets are living it. I’ve already stated that I think Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will be a solid pro, but he’s not much of an offensive player and most likely won’t help the Nets much this season. Sergey Karasev is a good passer and an allegedly good shooter. With increased playing time last season, he stepped his game up from his rookie campaign. However, if Karasev is gonna make a name for himself in this league as a shooter, he’s going to have to increase his shooting numbers (he’s averaged 39.1 from the field and 27.4 from three in his two seasons).

Centers: This team has one piece… Brook Lopez. He’s arguably the best center in the East. Although he seems to be frequently injured, it should be noted that Lopez has played in over 72 games in five of his seven seasons. If Lopez can get over his foot issues for good, he has a chance to have a really good season and return to All-Star form. Lopez is one of the few remaining centers that still opt to play big. He’s essentially un-guardable in the post, he finishes around the rim, and has a reliable shot in and around the paint. Realistically, who in the East can stop him on a nightly basis? Nobody? If he’s healthy, there’s no reason to think Lopez can’t go for 20 and 8 per game off 52% shooting. The only thing holding Brook back is his feet. Then we have the aforementioned Bargnani. If he’s logging 30+ minutes, things are going badly for the Nets. He used to be able to shoot—over the least two seasons, not so much. Again, I think the Nets will miss Plumlee.

Final thoughts: This team is gonna be bad… Like Sixers, Magic, Knicks bad. In fact the Magic and the Knicks might be better. Similar to the Knicks, the Nets have a star player, but have nothing around them… Joe Johnson is still good enough to score but he’s not gonna help the team with much more…. Thaddeus Young is the third best player on this roster… Lopez and Johnson are off the books after this season; the Ghost of Deron Williams and Jack are off the books in the summer of 2017. Although the Brooklyn Nets have become more or less synonymous with the luxury tax, they can almost see the light at the end of the tunnel. Moving forward, they’ll most likely re-sign Lopez and still have Thaddeus Young, who many would be shocked to learn is still just 27 years old… If Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is a bust, you can tell me I was wrong in three years… If Thomas Robinson is every any good, you can also tell me I was wrong in three years… Much like the Sixers, the Nets are just fielding players to complete a roster at this point. At least they’re getting their payroll down…